TAMPA, Fla. — When the guy in your office fantasy football league picks a kicker in the second round, there aren’t any serious ramifications. Yes, his entry fee is sacrificed, and in every draft thereafter, there is a small price of shame when somebody brings up that big mistake to great laughter. But really, no big deal.
When casinos project win totals for teams, however, setting over/unders, there could be major ramifications, so you assume they’re working from strong information. Unlike that guy who jumped on Justin Tucker many rounds too early.
This is why it’s a fun annual exercise to dig through the over/unders and wonder: What do they know that we don’t? Or what don’t they know? Like last year, when some of the initial lines on the Orioles were set at 59½ wins — after Baltimore went 47-115 in 2018, and months after they had traded Manny Machado and slashed their payroll to the exoskeleton. The idea that the Orioles’ win total would climb by 13 after the team did absolutely nothing to get better, especially in the highly competitive AL East, seemed very far-fetched — and sure enough, Baltimore fell well short of that figure, winning only 54 games.
What about 2020? I…