March 7, 2021

The 2020 ZiPS Projections are Live! (FanGraphs)

The ZiPS projections for the 2020 season are now live for your perusal and condemnation. The 2021 and 2022 projections are also up, or at least imminent by the time you read this.

The same caveats from the team projections apply. There is a lot more detail at this link which will hopefully address many of your questions on why the projections exist and what they attempt to do.

ZiPS is not a playing time projector, by design. While the ZiPS projections are rejiggered in many contexts to conform with the depth chart playing time, the computer itself doesn’t have any insight into specific roster decisions as that’s not something computer projections have much to offer there. On a generalized level, ZiPS can — and does — know that older players get injured and that play below a specific threshold will typically result in lost playing time, but there are a lot of things it doesn’t know and can’t know. How will the Cincinnati Reds shuffle their outfield? How much rope does Jurickson Profar have if he again has a shockingly low BABIP in a year the Padres hope to become contenders? How threatening is Wilmer Flores to Mauricio Dubón’s playing time?

ZiPS — and any…

Read “The 2020 ZiPS Projections are Live!” at FanGraphs