May 11, 2021

Dodgers: How Does the NL West Stack Up, with PECOTA Projections (Dodgers Nation)



Baseball Prospectus PECOTA predictions have the Los Angeles Dodgers winning 102 games with a 99.9% chance to make the playoffs in the 2020 season. The PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) system simulates the MLB season nearly 1,000 times to generate a range for wins and probability to make the playoffs.

Let’s take a look at the NL West through the lens of every seamhead’s favorite algorithm.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

(Simulated Record: 102.5-59.5)

OVER 102.5 wins

Surprise surprise, PECOTA has lofty projections for a team with a deep well of starting pitching, two former MVP winners in their prime, and plenty of positional versatility. Dave Roberts deserves the questions regarding his playoff bullpen maneuvering, but his regular season acumen cannot be knocked. Except when he decides to have Kiki pitch.

Taking the over on 102 wins seems grandiose, but this team has the potential. Injuries will happen and the Dodgers will leverage their depth when they do. If Clayton Kershaw misses a few starts, they can plug in…

Read “Dodgers: How Does the NL West Stack Up, with PECOTA Projections” at Dodgers Nation